[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 230536
SWODY2
SPC AC 230534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BUF 35 S BUF 20
S JHW 15 ENE YNG 20 NE CAK 20 S CLE 30 N MFD 30 ESE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 20 NE BDR 10
SW PVD 25 ESE BOS 50 ESE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 20 W ANJ 35
W APN 25 W RQB 30 E SBN 15 WSW SBN 40 NW BEH 50 NE MTW MQT 60 ENE
GNA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FEATURE A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...AND A DEEP LARGE SCALE POLAR VORTEX
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF ERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NEW ENGLAND.
IN ADDITION TO THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...A SRN BRANCH MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSLATE
EWD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NRN MEXICO.

POWERFUL JET MAX WITH 500MB FLOW NEARING 150KT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN 1) CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND...AND 2)
SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT IN GENERALLY FAVORED MESOSCALE AREAS DOWNWIND
FROM THE LAKES.

...DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR...MICHIGAN...ERIE...
LES BANDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
AND INTENSE DURING THE DAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THIS
REGION AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EASES. MEANWHILE...LES EVENT WILL BE
ONGOING FROM SUPERIOR SWD. EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHOULD SUPPORT
VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF
AT LEAST 150 J/KG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOVE 700MB AND
EL TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -20C. COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING ON
THE LARGE SCALE...MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LES BANDS SHOULD
PROMOTE THUNDER...MOSTLY OVER THE LAKES...BUT OCCASIONALLY WITHIN
BANDS EXTENDING ONSHORE.

...SERN NEW ENGLAND...
THERMALLY INDIRECT CIRCULATION IN JET EXIT REGION WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ON COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SRN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GIVEN STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

..CARBIN.. 11/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM