[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221716
SWODY2
SPC AC 221715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A VERY LARGE TROUGH REMAINING OVER ERN
CANADA/THE ERN CONUS.  THOUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE NRN BAJA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM ERN U.S.
TROUGH.  WITH GENERALLY STABLE/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS PREVAILING OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF NW FLOW ALOFT...LITTLE THREAT
FOR THUNDER EXISTS.  

POLAR VORTEX -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE ERN TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SWD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.  HOWEVER...ATTM
IT APPEARS THAT LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS CHANGEABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS WITH TIME SHOULD GENERALLY NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHLY-ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 
GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE...AS
PASSAGE OF 850/700 MB TROUGHS MAY RESULT IN MORE UNIFORM NWLY FLOW
ALOFT -- AND THUS MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT BANDS OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A THUNDER OUTLOOK.

..GOSS.. 11/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.