[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 220539
SWODY2
SPC AC 220538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CRESTS LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE NW INTERIOR OF CANADA AND RESULTS IN A STRONG JET EXTENDING FROM
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE NCNTRL U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MEAN
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE NERN U.S.
WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WITHIN BLOCKING
UPPER RIDGE. A SRN BRANCH UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM
THE PACIFIC TO A POSITION NEAR SRN CA/BAJA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY
IN DRY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHERE INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF POLAR
JET...COUPLED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE
UNFROZEN LAKES...WILL RESULT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED TURBULENCE ABOVE THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.
SPORADIC CG LTG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW-TOPPED LES BANDS ORIGINATING
OVER THE LAKES. HOWEVER...TSTM PERSISTENCE OVER LAND AREAS SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LIMITED CHARGE SEPARATION.

..CARBIN.. 11/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.