[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211709
SWODY2
SPC AC 211708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ISP 25 ESE EEN
20 ENE CAR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.

A 980 TO 985 MB SURFACE-LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEEPENING AS IS MOVES NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN INTO ERN
QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CONUS.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH SOME IN-CLOUD AND PERHAPS A FEW CG
LIGHTNING STRIKES -- SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD INVOF DEEPENING/NWD-MOVING
SURFACE LOW.  THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY...NAMKF
AND GFS BOTH SHOW A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS. 
LIKEWISE...SREF DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST 50% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
50 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND...THUS SUPPORTING
THE INCLUSION OF A 10% THUNDER LINE THIS FORECAST.  EITHER
WAY...AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AT BEST.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.