[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 200623
SWODY2
SPC AC 200622

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
CTY 35 SE VLD 35 NE SSI 45 SE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN 30 SW MCN
35 ESE AND 35 ENE RZZ 30 SE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
WILL PROMOTE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM AND
DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT/COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE
NERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO APPALACHEE BAY FL BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN MOVE/REDEVELOP TO NEAR CHS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROM THERE THE LOW WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TO A POSITION
EAST OF NJ BY 12Z TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD TRAIL
SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

...FL...
MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD COVER MUCH OF FL BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. POCKETS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP WITH HEATING
OF THE DAY IN AREAS BETWEEN THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF FL MAY LIFT INTO SRN GA AS
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND FROM THE GULF. AS THE LOW SPREADS NEWD
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY TO
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT COULD RESULT
IN A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT EVOLVING IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE.

WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF FL SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/. GUIDANCE FROM 
NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
MIGHT EXIST THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH SSWLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASING TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING STORM MODE STILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL DURING THE DAY.

MOST LIKELY SEVERE TSTM SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE THAT CONVECTION MAY
BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50-75KT
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE MOVING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST.

..CARBIN.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.