[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201719
SWODY2
SPC AC 201717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
AAF 10 W SSI 30 SSE SAV 25 S CHS 10 NNE CRE 15 WNW ILM 15 E OAJ 40 W
HSE 50 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS 20 W ABY 40
NNW VDI CAE 25 W SOP 20 ENE RZZ 35 SSE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...

...FL PENINSULA AND GA/SC/NC COASTS...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. 

IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL
GULF OF MEXICO AND WARM FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL LIFT NEWD
DURING THE DAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F ALONG THE COAST
OF GA...SC AND NC THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS STORMS MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WRN
COAST OF FL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD EXIST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z IN THE TAMPA BAY
VICINITY SHOW SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1400 J/KG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 25 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 1.60 INCHES COMBINED WITH 70 KT AT 850 MB MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...A TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD
INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN NC. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EWD OFFSHORE.

..BROYLES.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.