[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151651
SWODY2
SPC AC 151650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
HSE OAJ 40 WSW CRE CAE SPA HKY 40 NE SSU 45 W EKN 40 NNW JHW ART 50
NE UCA 20 ESE GFL 30 ENE PSF 15 ESE BDL 35 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GPT MGM 50 ESE
CHA 45 NNW TRI 20 E UNI ZZV 45 N CLE ...CONT... 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW
APF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/SWRN NEW
ENGLAND SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE NATION...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...AS A 120 KT MID LEVEL
JET LIFTS NWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN SRN ONTARIO AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...AND CONTINUE LIFTING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NWD DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PA/NY/NRN VA AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
STRONG GRADIENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND FAST MOTION OF LINE MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPES LESS THAN 200 J/KG SUGGEST THE WIND THREAT MAY BE LOW. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA/NY AND ERN WV WHERE VERY
STRONG FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY  RESULT IN DAMAGING
WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. 

AS THUNDERSTORM LINE/FRONT MOVES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 
500 J/KG...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES
EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN PA/SRN NY SWD INTO VA. THE WIND THREAT
WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIR.

...SRN VA AND CAROLINAS...
THE FORCING AND WIND FIELDS...AND CONSEQUENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN ACROSS PA/NY. HOWEVER...
40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF DISCRETE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST 1 KM SRH FROM 200-250 M2/S2 MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINEAR SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
GREATER WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
MID EVENING AS FRONT/STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

...SERN AL EWD ACROSS GA AND NRN FL...
BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH AR...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE DUE TO
WEAKENING FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFTED PARCELS BEING
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

..IMY.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.