[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 150702
SWODY2
SPC AC 150701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
HSE OAJ FLO CAE SPA HKY SHD MRB IPT ITH SYR 45 SW SLK 40 NW RUT RUT
EEN GON 35 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW BVE MOB SEM CHA
JKL UNI ZZV 45 N CLE ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 35 WSW APF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND TO NRN
SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY TOWARD DEEP
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC TROUGH.  MAIN FEATURE INVOLVED IN THIS
TRANSITION IS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER ND. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD SRN HUDSON/JAMES BAYS DURING DAY-3...LEAVING
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS MS VALLEY.  WHILE
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE DEEPLY OCCLUDES AND SIMILARLY EJECTS
NEWD...INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM APPALACHIANS ACROSS
ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND OFFSHORE.

...MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF COLD
FRONT BY EARLY-MID MORNING...MOVE EWD ACROSS DE/HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS
AND ADJACENT AREAS...AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
INGEST PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...MOIST...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY
BUOYANT AIR AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS PA/NY/NRN DELMARVA
REGION.  INFLOW LAYER ALSO SHOULD DEEPEN AS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES
FROM PA/NY HIGHLANDS INTO LOWER TERRAIN NEAR COAST.  NEUTRALLY TO
WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL
WAA AND WEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200
J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BAND UNTIL ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
INGEST MORE STABLE MARINE AIR IN CENTRAL/ERN NEW ENGLAND.  DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM -- ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENCE OF 50-70 KT FLOW
BEGINNING A KM OR LESS ABOVE SFC ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION -- WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS DESPITE WEAKNESS OF CAPE.
TORNADO RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL -- OWING TO CONCERNS OVER
CONVECTIVE MODE AND BUOYANCY.

...VA/CAROLINAS...
FARTHER S ACROSS POTOMAC VALLEY REGION INTO ERN VA AND
CAROLINAS...EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH SWD
EXTENT.  HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SFC HEATING.  MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG -- SUPPORTED BY 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS.  FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DIURNALLY.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES...ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM
CAROLINAS ACROSS GA AND NRN FL.  THIS WILL RAMP DOWN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WITH SWD EXTENT.

...EARLY-MIDMORNING...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS AL/GA EARLY IN PERIOD.  THIS WILL
REPRESENT A CONTINUATION OF LATE DAY-1 REGIME OVER AL/GA...WHICH
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE
TREND WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL....THOUGH FCST
SOUNDINGS IN MOST MOIST/UNSTABLE SCENARIOS SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.