[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
FAM 20 NNE DEC 25 N DNV 25 ENE LAF 15 WSW MIE 25 WSW LUK 25 SW LEX
25 NW CSV 40 E HSV 20 WSW BHM 35 NNE MEI 25 NNW JAN 35 NNE MLU 40 N
ELD 15 SSE RUE 35 NNW FAM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
BPT 20 W GLS 55 SSW CLL 20 SSE TPL 25 SSW DAL 35 SSE MKO SGF 25 ENE
JEF 35 WNW SPI 25 SSW MMO CGX GRR FNT MTC 45 N CLE CAK 10 NNW PKB 10
W CRW 20 NNE TRI 45 WSW AVL ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC 35 WNW ELM
45 N UNV 30 E AOO 30 WNW DCA 10 ENE RIC 15 W ECG 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE
ILM 20 N CRE 10 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 10 WNW AAF ...CONT... 70
W COT 25 ESE BWD 15 NNW ADM 35 W TUL 25 SSE EMP 30 NNW TOP 20 WNW
SDA 10 SW DNS 35 E SPW 10 N RST 30 W CWA 50 SSE IMT 30 N TVC 55 E
APN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH PARTS OF
THE SERN U.S...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY... 

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS A STRONG JET STREAK
DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE EJECTING NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER NE OK BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD WITHIN ZONE OF
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER JET. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFT NEWD...THE WARM FRONT
NOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT TAILING SWD FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY
REACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS
THROUGH SRN GREAT LAKES...

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW RESIDING
FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS SRN
IL AND SRN IND. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY LARGE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO AOB 800 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AOA 60 KT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AS IT LIFTS
NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING
INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN SPREADING NEWD DURING THE
DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES CONTAINING
LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND A
FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND POTENTIAL
FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.