[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140712
SWODY2
SPC AC 140711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RUE SLO
HUF IND 40 WSW DAY LUK LEX TCL MEI JAN LLQ RUE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
BPT GLS 55 SSW CLL TPL ACT 30 SSE MLC SGF VIH STL DEC CGX GRR FNT
MTC CLE CAK PKB CRW TRI HSS ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC SYR BGM
CXY 35 W DCA RIC 40 SSW ECG 15 SSE EWN ILM CRE 45 SE AGS MCN DHN 55
WSW PFN ...CONT... 70 W COT 30 NNW DAL 45 S CQB TUL 60 NNE JLN MKC
BIE GRI 25 E ONL FSD RWF MSP EAU AUW 45 NNW TVC 55 E APN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL
INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...CENTRAL/ERN AR...CENTRAL/NRN
MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/NRN AL...CENTRAL/WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN
OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN
LOWER MI...

CORRECTED FOR TRANSPOSED HEADLINES

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST OVER CENTRAL CONUS
AND MS VALLEY REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD.  NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EWD INTO PACIFIC NW AND BC THROUGH PERIOD.  AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER ROCKIES OF BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER IA
BY AROUND 16/00Z.  BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WILL SHIFT/AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS TX AND
SEWD TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY OVER SRN SASK/NERN MT WILL RESULT
IN STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS DAY-1...AND
ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD. 
DRYLINE -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NE TX SWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO
JUST W DRT -- MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BY START OF PERIOD AND WILL
ACT AS SWRN BOUND FOR TSTMS BACKBUILDING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 
CYCLONE ON OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN OZARKS REGION
AT 15/12Z TOWARD SRN LM AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING DAY...ITSELF
OCCLUDING INVOF ERN LOWER MI BY 16/12Z.  CURRENT FRONTAL ZONE THAT
HAS STALLED FROM MID TN SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION IS FCST TO
RETURN NWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG WARM FRONT FROM LATE DAY-1
THROUGH DAY-2 PERIODS...E OF DEEPENING SFC LOW.

...E TX TO LOWER MI AND GA/AL...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH NUMEROUS
TOTAL REPORTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND
SCENARIO...BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS EXPECTED
ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...SOME SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE WIND AND/OR TORNADO EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE.  OVERLAP OF LARGEST PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE
AREA REPRESENTS AREA WHERE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
TO JUXTAPOSE WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...AND AS WARM FRONT RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD.

LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN RICH
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN 14/00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND DRT...06Z SFC
ANALYSIS AND LATEST GPS PW DATA.  PLUMES OF SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
60S F NOW ARE ANALYZED INLAND -- AND 70S OVER MOST OF OPEN WRN GULF.
 EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY LATE DAY-1 INTO DAY-2
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER MS DELTA REGION
TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG N OF OH RIVER.  HOWEVER...INTENSE DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH WINDS
ABOVE 50 KT JUST OFF SFC AND UPWARD THROUGH TROPOSPHERE.  LARGE/LONG
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PRESENCE OF SBCAPE AND STRENGTH OF FLOW
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND OVER BROAD SWATH
FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INDIANA/OH...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS
LOWER MI.

ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE -- HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DISCRETE AND
FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE
STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND
CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT.  FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH SHOULD BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUCH TSTMS TO DEVELOP.  NRN
PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD WEAKEN DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES
AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY.  HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF SEVERE THREAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO
MID TN AND PORTIONS GA/AL.

..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.