[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 130638
SWODY2
SPC AC 130637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV
SLO 40 N EVV 25 E OWB BWG 40 S CKV ELD GGG TYR DAL GYI FYV BLV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BUF BUF BFD DUJ
LBE JKL LOZ MSL 40 N ESF 40 S LFK SAT JCT BWD ADM JLN 45 SSE IRK 40
SE OTM OTM OXV FNB MHK HUT DDC GCK ITR TOR 85 E LWT GGW OLF SDY DIK
PIR 9V9 YKN 40 SSE FSD EAU AUW MTW RQB 45 E BAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN TX TO SWRN INDIANA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM GULF
OF AK ACROSS AK PANHANDLE INTO NWRN BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS
CANADIAN ROCKIES DAY-1 AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW DAY-2.  EXPECT
THIS LOW TO MOVE FROM SERN ALTA/SWRN SASK SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO
INVOF MN/IA BORDER DURING PERIOD.  OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC SCENARIO...AND ON
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING OF THERMAL/ISOHYPSIC
GRADIENTS FROM S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY.

COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND MO...AND SWD
ACROSS OK -- SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN
PERIOD...TRAILING SWWD AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS SRN
APPALACHIANS TO ARKLATEX REGION AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE INVOF NERN
TX.  AMIDST RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG NRN STREAM
LOW -- FRONT SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS ERN OK...AR...WRN TN AND SERN
MO AS WARM FRONT DURING PERIOD.  ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FRONT AND RICHER IN WARM SECTOR THETAE -- AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN SFC
ANALYSIS OF MID/UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS NOW OVER E TX.

INITIAL/PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATE DAY-1 ACROSS CANADIAN
HIGH PLAINS AND SHIFT SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO MN -- AHEAD OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS
AND INTERSECT RETREATING WARM FRONT INVOF CENTRAL/ERN NEB BY
15/00Z...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF POST-DRYLINE AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP
OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR AIR SHUNTED FARTHER SE OVER OUTLOOK
AREA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT...ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLY
MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT FROM MO TO SERN OK.

...ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
TWO PRIMARY REGIMES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
THIS PERIOD.  FIRST AND POTENTIALLY MOST SERIOUS WILL BE WITH RETURN
FLOW AIR MASS AND INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS AR...PERHAPS ALSO
WRN TN AND SERN MO DURING AFTERNOON.  SEASONALLY STRONG DIABATIC SFC
HEATING AND DEW POINTS 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG IN
MODIFIED ETA/ETA-BKF SOUNDINGS.  STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT
AND RELATIVE SFC BACKING NEAR WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES.  MOIST NEAR-SFC
AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND
THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. 
MAIN CONCERNS ATTM ARE NWD EXTENT OF RETURN FLOW -- WHICH VARIES
CONSIDERABLY IN SREF MEMBERS -- AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR
GENERATING TSTMS.

SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE IN
PERIOD FROM LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX...AMIDST
STRONG PREFRONTAL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME.  ASSOCIATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS TX AS CAP
STRENGTHENS...AND NEWD EXTENT OVER OH VALLEY REGION AS BUOYANCY
BECOMES WEAKER/MORE ELEVATED.

..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.