[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 121716
SWODY2
SPC AC 121715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 65 SSE BWD
SEP MWL CQB TUL FYV RUE 15 NW LIT 10 SW JBR 30 SE DTW ...CONT... 25
WSW BUF JHW PIT CRW 35 NNE TYS 30 SSE RMG 50 WNW GZH ASD 35 E 7R4 60
SW 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA.  A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION NEWD TO QUEBEC/NERN
STATES...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD NRN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS...
REACHING NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN WSWWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO LA AND CENTRAL TX
THROUGH 14/00Z...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO W GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND NERN
TX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD SHOULD STILL BE ACTIVE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX NEWD TO WRN KY AT THE START OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  THE ACTIVITY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF
TN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  

ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A
COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD PROVIDE
WEAKER UVVS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. 
PRIMARY FOCI FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY....ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.

A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F.  DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ENEWD TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MS.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
WARM SECTOR...THUS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL/WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  

THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NNEWD SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TO ERN OK/PARTS OF AR...AS ELEVATED REGIME OF MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

..PETERS.. 11/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.