[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131746
SWODY2
SPC AC 131745

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
JLN 40 NW FAM 25 SSE MVN 25 ESE PAH 20 N UOX 45 NW JAN 10 WNW MLU
GGG TYR DAL GYI 20 ENE TUL 60 N JLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 35 NNW BPT
45 S LFK SAT JCT 25 WNW SEP 35 NW ADM 30 NNE PNC 25 N P28 GCK 35 NE
LAA 25 W EGE 40 S EVW 10 WNW WEY GGW 15 SE SDY 20 SE DIK PIR 10 SSE
9V9 35 ENE ONL 30 W SDA LWD 30 SSW DBQ 30 ENE JVL 15 SSE MKG 40 E
BAX ...CONT... 45 NW BUF 10 SSE BUF 25 NNE PSK 35 ESE RWI FAY 25 NNE
AHN 15 NW BHM 30 NW MEI 30 NE MCB 35 SSE BVE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION/ERN
OK NEWD TO SRN MO/AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD...AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SEWD FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN PARTS OF SD/NEB BY 12Z TUESDAY.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WWD AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.  GIVEN THIS TREND...STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA UNTIL AFTER
15/00Z.

STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES BY 15/00Z.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SERN
CO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS LOW TRACKING SEWD INTO WRN OK BY
15/06Z...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TO CENTRAL MO BY 15/12Z AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM AMPLIFIES.

A COUPLE OF GENERALLY E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES.  THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE INTO A PRIMARY WARM FRONT RETREATING SLOWLY NWD DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...GIVEN INITIALLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THIS REGION. 
THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NWD MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING
CENTRAL MO TO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...NERN TX/NRN LA/ERN OK/AR/FAR SERN KS/SRN MO/SRN IL AND WRN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND AR WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION REGIME AS SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION.  WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD.  DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE WARM SECTOR AND RETREATING WARM FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN OK/SRN AR
SWD INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ERN OK/SERN KS INTO
SRN MO TO NERN TX...AND MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY NWD WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM TX INTO ERN KS/MO/SRN IL.
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO ERN OK COMBINED WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO.

HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS
TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE IN
GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

..PETERS.. 11/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.