[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 120637
SWODY2
SPC AC 120636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BUF JHW PIT
CRW CHA 0A8 ASD 7R4 50 SE BPT ...CONT... DRT HDO 40 NW AUS SEP MWL
CQB TUL FYV RUE LIT 60 W MEM 30 SE DTW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONUS PORTION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HEIGHT
FALLS OVER CENTRAL STATES AND PORTIONS GREAT LAKES REGION...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES REINFORCE BUILDING MEAN TROUGH.  FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AS DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER SWRN CO -- SHOULD
CROSS PLAINS STATES THROUGH DAY-1...PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW MOVING INLAND PACIFIC NW.  RESULTING MID/UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD
EJECT FROM MN NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT THIS PERIOD.  TRAILING
LOW-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS GULF
COAST STATES...AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

AT SFC...DEEP/OCCLUDED CYCLONE INITIALLY INVOF MN ARROWHEAD IS FCST
TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY REGION AND FILL...WHILE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD OVER OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. 
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...MS AND AL.  FRONT MAY RETREAT NWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF N
TX AND SRN OK LATE IN PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME COMMENCES IN
RESPONSE TO APCHG NRN PLAINS SYSTEM.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS
AR TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY.  SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WITH
TIME FROM LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY2 PERIOD...CONTINUING THAT TREND
DISCUSSED IN LATEST SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. INITIALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
BOWS...BUT WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH TIME THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM
AREA.

SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN DURING DAY --
ALONG AND S OF SFC FRONT.  WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS.  POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS MAY SHIFT/SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
ARKLATEX INTO ERN OK AFTER DARK...AS ELEVATED REGIME OF MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ABOVE SFC.

GEN TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT IN THIS
REGIME BECAUSE OF DECREASING BUOYANCY...BOTH SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED.
 ALSO TSTM RISK WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT THROUGH OH
VALLEY TOWARD CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
THETAE WARM SECTOR INFLOW INTO FRONT/CONVERGENCE BAND.

..EDWARDS.. 11/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.