[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEP 20
WNW MWL 30 E SPS 30 NNW PNC 40 NNW MHK 15 NW DNS MCW 45 SW LSE 30
SSE LNR RFD MMO BMI BLV 30 NNW POF IER LFK ACT SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP ALI 70 W
COT 10 S DRT 45 E BGS 25 ENE GAG 45 W P28 DDC 35 NNW GCK GLD IML LBF
BUB YKN AXN 25 NNE INL ...CONT... 40 WNW ERI 50 SSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROX 50 WNW JMS
Y22 2WX 4BQ BIL 3HT GTF CTB 45 NNW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NE TX TO
PORTIONS OF LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.  PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS FOR A SEVERE
THREAT ON SATURDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES.  THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN
TROUGH.  THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD REACHING IA TO WRN WI BY
13/00Z...AND THEN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. 
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP E/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...
REACHING EAST CENTRAL MN SWWD ACROSS WRN IA TO ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/
TX BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MODIFIED RETURN
OF GULF MOISTURE TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME ACROSS TX INTO OK WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NOW INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SWRN TX.  SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SWRN STATES TROUGH.  THIS LLJ SHOULD GENERALLY
MAINTAIN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH NRN MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA BY 13/00Z.  STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ENEWD ATOP A RATHER NARROW PLUME OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/ERN TX TO ERN OK/KS TO WRN MO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FROM PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...EXCEPT FOR THE AIR MASS RESIDING
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT
LAKES STATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT A GREATER THREAT
FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SW WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGER.  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 21-00Z AND EXTEND SWWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AND ERN OK.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD
INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO A
SQUALL LINE.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD
INTO NERN TX WILL SPREAD E/SEWD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES.

..PETERS.. 11/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.