[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 110643
SWODY2
SPC AC 110642

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEP 40
NW MWL SPS FSI END ICT MHK FOD MCW 45 SW LSE 30 SSE LNR RFD MMO BMI
BLV FAM IER LFK ACT SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRP ALI COT 55
NNE DRT 45 E BGS 25 ENE GAG 45 W P28 DDC 35 NNW GCK GLD IML LBF BUB
YKN AXN INL ...CONT... 40 WNW ERI 50 SSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ROX 50 WNW JMS
Y22 2WX 4BQ BIL 3HT GTF CTB 45 NNW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS N-CENTRAL/NE TX TO PORTIONS
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST ALOFT THROUGH
PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA CHANNEL ISLANDS.  11/00Z
SPECTRAL/ETA AND 10/21Z SREF MEAN APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM BEST...WITH NGM AS OUTLIER.  BY
13/00Z...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI AND IA
SWWD ACROSS W TX.  FASTER/STRONGER SPECTRAL PROGS FOR UPSTREAM
TROUGH -- NOW OVER DATA SPARSE NERN PACIFIC WATERS -- RESULT IN MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND TIGHTER GRADIENTS ALOFT FOR NRN PORTION OF CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH..AND THEREFORE...MUCH DEEPER SFC CYCLONE THAN ETA. 
SREF SOLUTIONS RUN THE FULL RANGE BETWEEN BOTH POSSIBILITIES.

THEREFORE...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN PROGS BY MIDDLE
OF PERIOD WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF SFC COLD FRONT.
IN EITHER EVENT...EXPECT FRONT TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH
PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH DAY-2.  FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND/OR
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX.

...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS -- SOME SEVERE -- ARE FCST TO DEVELOP
INVOF COLD FRONT -- FIRST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...BECOMING MORE CONDITIONAL AND LATER IN AFTERNOON-EVENING
FARTHER S TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN TX.  ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD DURING
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE SHIFTS EWD THROUGH
ARKLATEX.

SFC ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA INDICATE
BROAD PLUME OF UPPER 60S TO 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AT ROOT OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATELY DEEP MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS GULF.  LOW LEVEL
FRONT IS MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN GULF ATTM AND ASSOCIATED RETURN-FLOW
GEOMETRY WILL RESULT IN NARROW PLUME OF FAVORABLY MODIFIED AIR
MOVING NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK THROUGH EARLY-MIDDLE OF PERIOD. 
SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 50S OVER UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID 60S
CENTRAL TX.  COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...MOIST ADVECTION
AND NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD OVERCOME CINH SOONER ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THAN FARTHER S...WHERE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING EACH
WILL BE WARMER.  MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY -- BUT ALSO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING
BOW ECHOES AND/OR SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY ORIENTATION SHOULD BE LINEAR
BUT STORM MODAL DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL THIS SOON.

STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND TIGHT DEEP-LAYER FLOW GRADIENTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY ESPECIALLY WITH OPTIMALLY VIGOROUS
SPECTRAL FCST. ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY EXTEND FARTHER N THAN
PRESENT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...HOWEVER VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT PRECIP IN PROGS PRECLUDE MORE THAN MARGINAL SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM OVER MOST OF MN/WI.

CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN PROGS OF DEEPENING/POSITION OF SFC CYCLONE
-- AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COLD FRONT POSITION FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS -- RESULTS IN BROAD CATEGORICAL
SLGT WITH NEARLY UNIFORM PROBABILITIES ATTM.  PRIND MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS SWATH AND THAT
LARGER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS FOR
THIS EVENT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.