[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 081739
SWODY2
SPC AC 081738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
ROC ELM 10 NW POU 45 SSW BID ...CONT... 50 E SBY 10 WNW NHK 35 S PSK
CSV CKV 20 SSW OWB 10 SSW SDF DAY FWA 10 E AZO MBS 55 ENE BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EFK BML AUG 20
S EPM ...CONT... 30 ENE WAL AHN TCL LLQ HOT FSM POF 15 NNE EVV 40 E
IND 35 WSW FWA 20 WNW AZO GRR 35 WNW MBS 70 ENE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW UKI UKI TVL 50
SSW LAS 20 SSW TRM 20 SW RAL 55 S OXR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM THE LWR
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
STATES....

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW...NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM
STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  

IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...PHASING NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO DIG OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN
CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONES WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWARD COLD FRONTAL SURGE
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.  BEFORE THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER... RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE...ALREADY ONGOING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE.

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR
OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE....WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED.  

A DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
STRENGTHENS AND FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF EXIT REGION OF
STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK.  WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 J/KG EXPECTED...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WITH ONSET OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL COOLING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. 
A SQUALL LINE COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...SPREADING
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION
COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.  THIS COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.