[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080620
SWODY2
SPC AC 080618

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ROC 25 WNW ELM 25 SSW IPT 15 SSW MRB 40 W SHD 50 ESE JKL 30 WSW LOZ
40 SSW SDF 30 SSE BMG 20 WSW MIE 40 W TOL 35 SSE BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ART 35 NW GFL
20 SSW EEN 20 SSE EWB ...CONT... 15 SSE SBY 25 SE CHA 20 SSW TUP 20
S BVX 15 NNE UNO 25 NE FAM 15 NNE DEC 10 WNW CGX 35 SSW MBL 25 N TVC
35 ESE ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE EWD AND UNDERGO SOME
AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
AREA DURING THE DAY.


...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...

A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH
WILL TRANSPORT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SPREAD EWD AND SHOULD INITIALLY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS. A ZONE OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN THE UPSTREAM PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OH VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HEIGHT
FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY REMOVE ANY REMAINING CAP BY MID
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.