[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071737
SWODY2
SPC AC 071736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
HTS 25 ESE LEX 30 ENE MVN 40 SE UIN 35 WNW BRL 15 WSW LSE 40 W CWA
45 ENE AUW 25 NNW MBL 10 S MBS 10 NNE CAK 25 ESE PKB 30 SE HTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV
30 NW DCA 25 WSW RIC 35 ESE DAN 30 NE HKY 40 NE CSV 20 WSW CGI 15
NNW TBN 35 NNE SZL 20 WSW OXV 20 WSW FOD 35 N SUX 30 WNW FSD 15 N
VVV 25 N RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER
50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE
TRM 35 SSW SAN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...

...OH/MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WILL PROVE FAVORABLE
ALLOWING UNCONTAMINATED TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS TO SPREAD
INLAND...RETURNING NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OH
VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.  INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ASCENT AND
CONVECTIVE THREAT EARLY...WITH TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEWD WITH TIME AS LLJ MAINTAINS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED UPSTREAM
ACROSS IL/SRN MO.  NEUTRAL-WEAK UPPER HEIGHT RISES THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER 00Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE SEVERE RISK AREA
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AIDING RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WIND SHIFT.

LATEST THINKING IS WARM SECTOR INITIATION MAY STRUGGLE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. 
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/SRN IL
SUGGEST WEAK INHIBITION AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS MAY
PROVE ADEQUATE IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES.  OTHERWISE...ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

..DARROW.. 11/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.