[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070636
SWODY2
SPC AC 070635

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
DAY 20 NNE HUF 25 WNW SPI 30 SW BRL 25 SSW CID 30 ENE ALO 25 SSE LSE
35 E VOK 35 SSE MTW 15 E GRR 25 NW TOL 25 WSW FDY 30 WNW DAY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ERI 30 S DUJ 35
E EKN 10 SSE SSU 30 W BLF 10 SSE JKL 40 S SDF 40 WSW OWB 20 ENE POF
25 NNE UNO 45 S SZL 40 SE SDA 35 SSW FOD 30 SSE RWF STC 10 ESE ASX
MQT 30 NNE PLN 105 E OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF CUTTING OFF THE SRN BRANCH OF FULL LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE W COAST MONDAY...WHILE ADVANCING NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER/MID 
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING
THE OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY.


...ERN PARTS OF MID MS VALLEY GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY...


RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW RESIDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
ADVECT NWD THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. BY
LATE TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SRN
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE
WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION ALONG ERN PART OF WARM FRONT FROM ERN KY...OH AND WV
EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN STRONGER CAP WITH WWD EXTENT TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP N OF
THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING FROM NRN PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. VERTICAL
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
MID MS VALLEY NEAR TRIPLE POINT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.