[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061727
SWODY2
SPC AC 061726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI
30 SSW VCT 15 SE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 10 ENE OLM
20 WSW PDX 35 SSW EUG 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SBN 25 SSE FDY
25 N UNI 45 NNW TRI 35 NNE CSV 45 ENE PAH 40 NE VIH 30 SE IRK BRL 25
W MMO 35 SE SBN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/ LIFTS NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PART OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD
TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN SWWD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  MEANWHILE...TRAILING PART OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY...

WAA ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ON BACKSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG...AND THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL ATTM TO WARRANT
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...S TX...

A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY OWING TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING.  DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ALONG ANY SMALL-SCALE CONFLUENCE LINES/HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE MAY SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

..MEAD.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.