[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060614
SWODY2
SPC AC 060613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 10 ENE OLM
20 WSW PDX 35 SSW EUG 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E AZO 20 ESE CAK
40 ESE PKB 40 SE HTS 35 WNW JKL 50 SSW HUF 50 S UIN 40 SE OTM 20 ENE
CID 10 SE JVL 10 E AZO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI
30 SSW VCT 15 SE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL MONDAY IN WAKE OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SWRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.


...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CNTRL PLAINS LEE
TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE NWD RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL
LIKELY ADVECT NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
UNDERNEATH PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE FROM PARTS OF MO EWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
STORMS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS
OF IL AND EWD INTO IND AND OH. AT THIS TIME THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.