[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051700
SWODY2
SPC AC 051659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
EFK 35 SSE ISP ...CONT... 50 SE ACY 15 SSE JKL 35 SSW LEX 30 NNE SDF
15 NNE ARB 50 E BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE BML 15 WSW
EPM ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE
GWO 30 SW UOX 20 SSW OWB 20 E BMG 30 NW FWA 25 NNW RQB 65 NNE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
45 S OLM 50 SW ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EWD
INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC...NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY
LIFT NEWD...REACHING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI AT 06/12Z WILL
UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS ERN ONTARIO INTO WRN
QUEBEC.  AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE NRN APPALACHIANS
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...UPPER OH VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY...

STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWD INTO CNTRL
KY/MIDDLE TN.  INTENSIFYING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL AID IN RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S
ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA.  DESPITE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 7 C/KM
AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...DIABATIC
HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM
AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.

SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL
NY/PA AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.  GIVEN THE DYNAMIC
NATURE OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT...STRONG WIND FIELDS /I.E.
CLOUD-BEARING...MEAN WINDS OF 55-65 KTS/...SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWS OR
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.