[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050557
SWODY2
SPC AC 050556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE BML 15 WSW
EPM ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE
GWO 30 SW UOX 25 WSW BWG 20 S SDF 20 NNW LUK 20 SSW FDY 25 SSW DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
45 S OLM 15 NNE ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE
NERN STATES AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL
LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER
SURFACE LOW.

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES...

PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 BY EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SLY SURFACE LAYER FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S PROBABLE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH ERN
PA AND NY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF CLOUDS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR COULD SERVE AS LIMITING
FACTORS WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...A STRONG
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE FORCING AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE DAY. A FORCED LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING OVER ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY MAY
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN
OCCUR E OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NRN VA THROUGH PA AND NY. STORMS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND DAMAGING WIND.

WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PART
OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..DIAL.. 11/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.