[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 310621
SWODY2
SPC AC 310621

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
CRP 55 SSW ALI 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 NW DRT 65 NE P07 25 E MAF 50
SSE LBB 65 NNW ABI 20 NW MWL 45 S DAL 55 SW TYR 10 S LFK 35 SSE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S P07 35 W INK 60
ENE 4CR 35 E ALS 30 WNW COS EGE 20 ENE U28 50 NNE P38 10 SSW TPH 35
NE MER 10 SW SAC 20 SE RBL 65 NNW SVE 90 NNW WMC 70 ESE BNO 30 WSW
BKE 40 E DLS 40 W YKM 15 SW OLM 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... HUL 25 WNW AUG
BDL 10 SW EWR 15 NW DOV 20 WNW DCA 50 ENE EKN 30 SSW CAK 15 ENE DAY
20 NNE LEX 20 WNW HSS 25 NNW SOP 20 SW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
GIVEN STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO/
QUEBEC...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH...AND ALSO AS HEIGHTS FALL UPSTREAM OVER THE WRN STATES AS
LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE WEST.

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. 

...CENTRAL AND SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INTO SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA WILL DEPEND UPON THE EVOLUTION OF A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF DAY 1.  DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INTO SERN TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH THE GFS INDICATING EVEN STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX. 

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT 30-35 KT OF NWLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.  PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS...ONCE THE LOCATION OF GREATEST RISK
CAN BE DETERMINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWD ACROSS MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.  THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SWD EXTENTION OF CONVECTION INTO IA/MO AND
ERN OK TO AR.

SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...WHERE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS FAR NORTH WILL LIMIT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  A STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. 
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL LOCALLY APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE
VALUES.

FARTHER S ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB TO NRN TX...MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

...FL TO SERN GA/ERN SC/SERN NC...
30-35 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GULF NEWD ACROSS FL
AND THE SERN STATES.  MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN
STATES.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WEAK UPPER FORCING...A
LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.