[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 311742
SWODY2
SPC AC 311741

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
ANW 35 NNW MHN 40 E CDR 15 N RAP 35 WSW Y22 25 S P24 45 ENE MOT 65
NE DVL 40 NNW TVF 10 NW BJI 30 ENE AXN 45 NE BKX 25 ENE ANW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
BRO 55 N MFE 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE P07 50 ESE FST 25 SSE MAF
20 N BGS 25 NW ABI 30 NNE BWD 20 NW TPL 25 W CLL 40 NW HOU GLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
VRB 35 WNW PBI 45 ESE FMY 40 S FMY ...CONT... 25 SSE TLH 15 WNW VLD
25 NNW AYS 20 W SAV 45 SW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 WNW AUG 10 NW
ORH 15 NE EWR 20 SE PHL 15 E BWI 20 W HGR 20 N CAK 40 SE FWA 15 SSE
SDF TYS 35 S GSO 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 35 W INK 65 WSW TCC
15 WNW TAD 45 W COS 35 N MTJ 10 NNE 4HV 50 NNE P38 10 SSW TPH 35 NE
MER 10 SW SAC 20 SE RBL 65 NNW SVE 90 NNW WMC 70 ESE BNO 30 WSW BKE
40 E DLS 40 W YKM 15 SW OLM 20 WNW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND S TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND NRN FL INTO SRN
GA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW U.S.. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. NRN
EXTENTION OF UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER AZ AND NM...SHIFTING EWD
INTO PARTS OF TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN
GULF WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN GULF WILL LIFT NWD. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER AL EWD THROUGH
SRN GA AND SC.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH WRN MN...


THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW FROM ERN MT SEWD THROUGH SD SHOULD
CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH ND AND INTO SRN CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CONVECTION. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FROM -14 TO -16C AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. SUBSIDENCE
IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SPEED MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN DURING
THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE
INTO ONE MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER
THE DAKOTAS BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS.


...CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

THREAT IN THIS AREA APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL. AN MCS MAY STILL BE IN
PROGRESS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR SRN TX WITH AN
ONGOING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS RIDGE
BUILDS EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW MAKES
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS DO
MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

...CNTRL FL THROUGH SRN GA...

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST OVER
FL AND SRN GA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ENEWD WITH THE SRN EXTENTION OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH
NRN FL DURING THE DAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FL INTO GA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO
EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL INTO SRN GA WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST.

..DIAL.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.