[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301737
SWODY2
SPC AC 301736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
AUS 40 WSW SJT 45 E HOB 30 E TCC 25 E RTN 25 S LHX 35 NW EHA 30 NE
EHA 25 ESE LBL 35 E DDC ICT BVO 30 NNW PRX 60 SW TYR 15 NNW AUS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
HUM 15 SSW MCB LUL 25 W SEM CSG 20 NE SSI 30 SE JAX 15 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 30 ESE EEN
BID ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 25 S CXY 10 SW PSB 15 NW DUJ 40 NW JHW
...CONT... 45 WNW RRT 20 WSW OTG 40 WSW JEF 55 NNW POF 40 SE BNA 25
S CLT 25 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 10 SSE CNM 40 S LVS 35 ESE
GUC 35 W CAG 40 N EVW 40 NNE EKO 65 SE 4LW 15 NNW 4LW 50 NNW BNO 15
SSE ALW 60 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SRN GA
AND NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH BROKE OFF FROM ELONGATED VORTEX OVER
THE NRN TIER OF STATES LATE SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS PERIOD. 
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EWD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND/PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

MODELS STRETCH PVA FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.  THE NAM/NAM-KF INDICATE VERY STRONG
SIGNAL ENHANCING UVVS OVER SERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE MOVING IT
SEWD ALONG/JUST S OF THE OK/TX RED RIVER TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LOCATED IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL SRN BRANCH NEAR 90 KT INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WHERE
DEW POINTS AT 850 MB ARE 10-16C.  AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE FORECAST AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5C/KM.

THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN
AND N CENTRAL TX...POSSIBLY SRN OK...TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS SCENARIO SPELLS BOW ECHO/DERECHO TYPE EVENT
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-50 KT IS FORECAST FROM NERN KS NWD INTO ERN ND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ENEWD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 J/KG IS FORECAST INTO ERN KS...BUT SOURCE REGION OF LOW LEVEL
AIR NORTH OF THIS AREA IS AROUND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST EWD ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL...

REMNANTS OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE PERIOD.  AIR
MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NEAR
7C/KM...HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.