[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300628
SWODY2
SPC AC 300627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
SJT 30 SE MAF 45 E HOB 30 E TCC 15 NNE RTN 25 S PUB 20 SE COS 45 ENE
LAA EHA 40 W GAG 40 NE CSM FSI 15 WSW MWL 50 S BWD 45 S SJT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
7R4 15 SSW MCB 40 SSE GWO 20 SSE CBM 20 NNW LGC 40 E MCN 30 WSW AYS
35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 10 SSE CNM
35 ENE 4CR 20 SW FMN 25 SW 4HV 20 W ELY 45 SSE TVL 25 SW SAC 40 NNE
UKI 15 NW MFR 45 NW DLS 60 E BLI ...CONT... 35 W INL 30 E MCW 30 SE
IRK 40 SW STL 25 SSE SDF SSU 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 30 W
CXY 25 NNW YNG 40 SE MTC 30 SE OSC ...CONT... 70 WNW CAR 25 WNW AUG
20 SSE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS
SERN CO TO PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NWRN STATES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THESE TROUGHS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO TX.  FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO WRN/CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK...
NAM/GFS/NAMKF AGREE THAT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF
A MCS...SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AT 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OK.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  WRN MOST PORTION OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NWRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DRY LINE MIXING EWD AND EXTENDING FROM
NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX NEAR SJT AND NE OF DRT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION.  MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH 30-35 OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NWWD INTO CO AND SERN WY...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PROGGED TO
EXTEND INTO SERN CO.  ONE OR TWO MCS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND MOVE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS/OK AND INTO
NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL TX.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS FROM DAY 1 THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INLAND
OVER THIS REGION ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOES SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF
POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. 
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WET MICROBURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY AREAS THAT CAN RECEIVE SOME
SUN/STRONGER INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.