[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291711
SWODY2
SPC AC 291710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
P07 40 WSW INK 35 SSW ROW 50 SSE SAF 30 W PUB 20 N COS 30 SE DEN LIC
30 NNE LHX 15 E CAO 40 E CVS 40 S LBB 30 N SJT JCT 40 NW COT 40 NW
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW
40 N INW 35 NW GCN 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM
...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE
HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR
10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE
JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.  ERN
PORTIONS OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OH
VLY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND.  BUT...UPSTREAM WRN PORTIONS
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN CLOSED LOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTN. 
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
THE GULF COASTAL REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A NUMBER OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...OWING TO A NUMBER OF RECENT COLD
FRONTS DROPPING SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NERN UPPER LOW.  ONE
FRONT...VCNTY OH VLY...WILL BE REINFORCED MONDAY AFTN AS NEXT IN A
SERIES OF BOUNDARIES DROPS SWD FROM THE GRTLKS.  ANOTHER
FRONT...DELINEATING NRN EDGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS...WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE DEEP S.  LASTLY...LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DIURNAL UPSLOPE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING GREAT BASIN H5 TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS ON
THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY.  TSTMS WILL GROW ON THE CO/NM
MOUNTAINS BY MID-DAY...WITH LIKELY PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE/RATON MESA.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS 50-60 KT MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION BY LATE-AFTN.  QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW
STABLE THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE GIVEN MORNING LOW-CLOUDS/FOG. 
BUT...IF SUFFICIENT RECOVERY CAN OCCUR...TSTMS MAY ROOT/DEVELOP INTO
A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES ADDED THREATS. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS...BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

FARTHER S...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE AND
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SERN NM/FAR W TX.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL BE WEAKER HERE...BUT NWLY COMPONENT ATOP SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD THAN FARTHER
N ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
REGION MONDAY AFTN.  A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO.  ISOLD THREAT WILL PRECLUDE SLGT
RISK ATTM.

...OH VLY TO SRN MID-ATLANTIC...
FAST WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED GRTLKS UPPER LOW.  IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
COULD INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VLY JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID-DAY MONDAY. 
GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ALIGNED NORMAL TO
THE SHEAR VECTORS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.  THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...WITH STORMS
DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.

...DEEP S...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE
DEEP S MONDAY AS THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES EWD INTO AN
INCREASINGLY TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT.  THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HEAVY RNFL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...IF ANY AREA CAN
RECEIVE SUN...STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY RESULT AND ISOLD DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS COULD OCCUR.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR
AREA OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...BUT A LOW
PROBABILISTIC THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED.

..RACY.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.