[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290638
SWODY2
SPC AC 290637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
INK 30 SW ROW 50 SSE SAF 45 WNW RTN 30 WNW PUB 40 SE LIC 10 NE LAA
10 N DHT 20 WNW LBB 30 NE BGS 45 W BWD 35 ENE JCT 15 ENE HDO 25 NW
COT 35 SE DRT 25 ENE P07 30 WNW INK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW
40 SE PGA 45 W MLF 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM
...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 15 E WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE
HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR
10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE
JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD
TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW...NOW OVER NRN
CA...WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NRN UT INTO CO ON
MONDAY.  FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTH...A POSITIVE
TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z
MONDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE NWRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45-50 KT ACROSS ERN
CO/ERN NM AS THE NRN UT TROUGH MOVES EWD.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD FROM OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NM. A DRY LINE WILL
EXTEND FROM SERN NM TO NEAR DRT BY MID AFTERNOON.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND INTO THE MID 60S OVER SWRN TX WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS
THE DRY LINE.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER SRN CO/ERN NM WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH MULTICELLS EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMMON SEWD ALONG THE
DRY LINE.  A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN TX INTO WRN KS
MONDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO MCS/S TO
DEVELOP ESEWD INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN TX MONDAY
NIGHT.

...SRN TX NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO SERN STATES...
BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING FROM
SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH.  A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND
THEN SEWD TO SERN GA AT 12Z MONDAY.  THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WITH THE GA PORTION MOVING NEWD INTO SC.  SSWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/TN
VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS DIFFERENCE WHICH AFFECTS THE
DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS RESULTED IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD TO THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. 
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ACROSS THESE AREAS. 
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL RISK
IN LATER OUTLOOKS...WHEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE OBVIOUS.

...OH VALLEY STATES...
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WRN
GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH...A BAND OF MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL
WINDS /40-50 KT/ SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN IA/IL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATED DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WITH THE SPEED OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT
OF MID LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/
COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.