[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281739
SWODY2
SPC AC 281738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
BRO 50 NW LRD 25 N DRT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 35 S CDS 45 E CVS 40 WSW
TCC 35 SSW RTN TAD 45 SE LHX 30 NW GCK 25 NW RSL 30 SSE DSM 10 WNW
BRL 45 SSE UIN 20 SSW JEF 15 NW JLN 10 S TUL 35 ENE MLC 45 WSW MEM
30 E CBM 20 E MGM 30 WSW DHN 15 ESE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 25 ESE 3TH
20 NNW WEY 20 NNW RIW 45 S DGW 35 S BFF 25 NNW IML 25 N EAR 20 SSE
OFK 20 S YKN 30 WSW MHE PIR 50 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF ...CONT... 25 WNW
YUM 15 WSW EED 40 NNW BIH 45 NW TVL 60 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W WAL 30 NE CHO 35
E PKB 10 SSW UNI 35 W BLF 10 SW AVL 30 E AND 20 ENE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
STATES...AND AREAS NORTH FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...

ABNORMALLY LOW UPPER HEIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SRN BRANCH NOW IN PLACE FROM NRN
MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE MORE PRODUCTIVE
BRANCH...CONVECTIVE-WISE...WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AS
HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST
WSWLY FLOW.

...GULF COAST STATES...

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SLY BRANCH EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO...ACROSS SRN
TX.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE OVER TX.  THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES ENHANCING THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AS
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY FLOW. 
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE UPSTREAM FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH SCNTRL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.  BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND 70S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON AS
30-35KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
REGION SUGGEST SOUTH TX WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE
INHIBITION AND CREATING VERY UNSTABLE PROFILES AS MANY TEMPERATURES
SOAR INTO THE 90S.  MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 3500 J/KG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT EVOLVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
UNDERESTIMATED...AS SEEMS POSSIBLE.  AS MODELS SAMPLE THIS FEATURE
LATER THIS EVENING...MORE CONFIDENCE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MO...

FARTHER NORTH...SWD PLUNGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY
FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
ANOTHER ZONE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH INCREASED
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NRN MO...POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPPER
TROUGH OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THAT WILL SHEAR ESEWD LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  FORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THUS DIURNAL HEATING WILL STRONGLY
INFLUENCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT.

...GREAT BASIN...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS ORE/NRN CA WILL EJECT
INLAND ACROSS NRN NV INTO UT LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH WILL
FOCUS A ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD ENABLE DEEP CONVECTION TO EASILY
DEVELOP NORTH OF JET AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS CAN 
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.

..DARROW.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.