[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280641
SWODY2
SPC AC 280640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
GAD 15 SW SEM 30 ENE MCB 30 WSW POE 50 SW LFK 15 ENE AUS 50 SSE BWD
30 E SEP 35 NNW MWL 40 E LBB 30 S CVS 50 SSW LVS 30 SSE ALS 45 NNE
ALS 30 W COS 35 SSW GLD 20 SSW GCK 35 WSW ICT 20 SSE EMP 30 E MKC 15
SW IRK 20 NNW SPI 15 NNW MTO 30 E MDH 25 ENE POF 20 SW POF 10 ESE
JBR 50 SSW BNA 30 WNW GAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 45 ESE LRD
50 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 WNW YUM 15 WSW EED 40 NNW BIH 45 NW TVL 60
NW UKI ...CONT... 65 NW FCA MSO 20 NNW WEY 20 NNW RIW 45 S DGW 35 S
BFF 30 E IML 15 SE GRI 60 ENE OMA 30 SSW FOD 10 W FOD 45 NE BUB 35
ESE ANW 30 SW PHP 55 NE 4BQ 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV 35 NW BWI
30 NE SSU 30 NE HKY 20 ESE CLT 20 ENE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN CO/NERN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED E-W ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD TO NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 1 WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THESE SAME AREAS ON SUNDAY.  A BAND OF MODERATE-STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE PACIFIC TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ON SATURDAY ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE...WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2 BREAKING DOWN THE SWRN STATES RIDGE.  ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z MONDAY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO THE SERN STATES.  GENERALLY WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SRN STREAM
SHOULD ENHANCE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
GULF COAST STATES.

THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND FURTHER S ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION SATURDAY NIGHT TO 12Z SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2.

...ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
NAM/GFS/NAMKF AGREE THAT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK EWD TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG/N
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN OK SEWD TO
CENTRAL MS/SRN AL AT 12Z SUNDAY.  GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS EARLY MORNING TSTM CLUSTER EWD ACROSS ERN TX TO
THE LOWER MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS...THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS UNCERTAIN.  DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM SRN/ERN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS.  THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FROM ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY LOWER TN
VALLEY.

...MID MS VALLEY WSWWD TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN AT 12Z SUNDAY
WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE SWRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION ON SUNDAY.
 A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO NWRN
MO AND NRN KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE S/SE REACHING A
LINE FROM ERN WI TO CENTRAL MO AND NRN OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.  A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT INTO CENTRAL
MO/CENTRAL IL. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG
THIS MOISTURE AXIS.  THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS MOST LIKELY IN A LINEAR MODE.

FURTHER W...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EXTENT
OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN KS/NRN OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO INTO
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM.  CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST
MAINLY MULTICELLS...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN
CO/NERN NM.

SEVERE THREAT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND THUS SHOULD
DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.  THE
ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO/NERN NM MAY BE LONGER LIVED AS IT MOVES ESEWD
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING OF
AN ELY LLJ INTO THIS REGION.

...NRN UT...
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTED EWD ACROSS
NRN UT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT MULTICELLS AS MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES DEVELOP ACROSS NRN UT. 
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.