[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271732
SWODY2
SPC AC 271731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIA
ALN 15 WNW VIH 15 ENE EMP 10 NNW GCK 60 ESE GLD EAR LNK OMA 20 WNW
DSM 15 E CID PIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
HKY 25 SSE DAN 45 W ECG 10 NE OAJ 50 N CHS AGS AHN AVL 30 NNE HKY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CNM
MAF 10 SW SJT 35 ESE DRT P07 15 ESE MRF GDP CNM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RBL 30
SE CEC EUG RDM 30 SW BNO 75 NW WMC 25 NNE WMC 10 WSW U31 35 ENE TVL
50 SW SVE RBL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BLI YKM 15 W PDT
10 WSW SUN LND LAR 10 WSW BFF 35 SE AIA OFK SPW RWF AXN 15 NNW IWD
...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 E CZZ PMD 45 N FAT SAC
25 WNW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE TBN CNU BVO
MKO PGO 20 NNE HOT 20 NW MEM 10 SE MKL OWB EVV MVN 30 WNW MDH 20 ESE
TBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 40 SE GNV
20 S VLD 35 SW DHN 15 SW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MO VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SAT AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF SW TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN AND EARLY EVE
NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NRN SIERRA NEVADA....

WHILE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW 
WILL WEAKEN...BUT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN STATES.  MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING
PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW WHICH EMANATED FROM MORE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF WESTERLIES PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  SYSTEM IS PROGGED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE PROGRESSING
VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SOUTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  IN WEAKER MORE
SOUTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE
INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.

LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BROADER SCALE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES.  MEANWHILE...THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST REMAINS VERY WARM...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY MINOR WIND/HAIL THREATS...BUT SEVERE
THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IN SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREAS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
SOUTH/EAST OF MANITOBA CLOSED LOW...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS
PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALONG AN AXIS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.  IN WAKE OF SYSTEM
ACCELERATING EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MODELS MAINTAIN 20 TO
30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS KANSAS INTO CONFLUENT
REGIME ACROSS MISSOURI SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MODERATELY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSES.

STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. 
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREAT.

PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. 
SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS COMPARED TO AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES.  FURTHERMORE...FORCING ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
 A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS
WILL MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS LIKELY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BUT
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE.  SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST...BUT GIVEN
INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

...NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CASCADES...
MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...
MODERATE FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS.

..KERR.. 05/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.