[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270646
SWODY2
SPC AC 270645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JLN 35
SSE P28 45 WSW GAG 50 WSW AMA 45 NE ROW 40 SSE 4CR 30 E ONM 20 ESE
COS LIC 35 NNW GLD 30 NNW CNK 15 SSE FNB 35 N SZL 50 N SGF JLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W IPL 15 NW EED 50
WNW GUP 35 NNW 4SL 20 S 4FC 10 SSE LAR 45 NNW CYS 35 SE AIA 15 S OFK
20 WNW DSM 15 ENE BRL 25 ENE PIA 15 S RFD 25 N FRM 30 E HON 45 NNE
ABR 80 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BLI 20 SE SEA 10
SSE DLS 40 ESE BNO 15 NW OWY 25 ENE EKO 15 WNW U31 40 E SAC 55 NW
SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 45 NW ORL
15 SE GNV 45 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE...COLD CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES WILL WEAKEN ON DAY 2 AS
IT EVOLVES INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE NERN STATES.  BAND OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY OVER
WRN ND/ERN MT...WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE WEAKER IMPULSES TRANSLATE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS REGION.

IN THE WEST...MEAN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SWRN STATES
NWD TO WRN CANADA.  IMPULSES EMANATING FROM BAJA AND MEXICO WILL
TRACK ENEWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND ALSO ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
FURTHER N...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND GENERAL LOCATION OF
A PACIFIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NRN CA/ ORE ON
SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
INTO TX IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS

...NM/ERN CO EWD ACROSS KS TO WRN MO...
MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT FROM
ERN NM/WRN TX NEWD ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH AND INTO KS TO WRN MO ON
SATURDAY.  SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD AND EXTENDING FROM NERN NM TO WRN
KS...AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  NWLY FLOW
RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
OVER ERN NM/ERN CO WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  FURTHER EAST...MODELS
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF AN E-W BOUNDARY OVER KS INTO WRN MO. 
HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS KS INTO FAR NRN OK AND WRN MO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SRN TX EWD TO GULF COAST/SERN STATES...
MID TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO EXTEND ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE SERN STATES TO TX
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. 
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL SINCE THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH. 
THUS...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX AS ONE OR
TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM MEXICO.  HOWEVER...
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THUS LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORM THREAT. 
PORTIONS OF TX MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...MID ATLANTIC...
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
REACHING CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN NC.  THIS COMBINED
WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD.  STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/NERN STATES...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. 
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

...FL...
OLD MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO PER WV IMAGERY...IS PROGGED BY BOTH NAM/GFS TO TRACK
EWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA BY 29/00Z.  AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS.  ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.

...NRN CA INTO PORTIONS WRN OREGON...
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM NRN CA TO
WRN ORE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 05/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.