[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261731
SWODY2
SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
INK GDP 25 N ALM 15 SSE SAF 45 N SAF 30 NW RTN CAO 40 NNW MAF 10 ENE
INK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
ART 15 ESE UCA 10 NNE TTN 10 NE NHK 10 SW BKW 40 WSW OWB 15 NNE CGI
35 W TBN 10 ENE OJC 15 ENE OTM CGX 20 N LAN 65 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 20 E LEB
25 WNW BOS 20 NE BID ...CONT... 15 NE ILM 40 SE CAE MCN AUO SEM 50
NE MOB 20 S MOB ...CONT... CZZ RAL 25 SSE BFL 30 NE PRB SCK UKI 15
SW EKA ...CONT... 25 SW BLI YKM BNO 10 WNW OWY 10 ESE ENV 15 SE U24
BCE 75 SSE U17 GUP DRO EGE 10 E FCL 40 NW IML ANW YKN 10 SSE OTG MSP
RHI 85 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 10 ESE GNV 35 N
GNV 20 E AYS SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY
EWD INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS....

CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC LATER TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  MODELS ALSO
INDICATE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AS WEAK UPPER JET AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC.

...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...LWR GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS /500 MB TEMPS AOB -20C/.  THOUGH SERIES OF
LOW-LEVEL COLD SURGES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST
OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECLUDING RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INSTABILITY BENEATH UPPER
COLD POOL.  DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL WEAK
MID/UPPER PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REGIME WILL ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN
STRONGEST CELLS...BUT PEAK INTENSITIES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST IN MOST ACTIVITY.

...FLORIDA...
GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.  SHEAR LIKELY WILL BE WEAKER THAN PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED HAIL/DOWNBURSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AGAIN PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY.  WIND FIELDS AND
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT
PERHAPS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSL0PE FLOW BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...GREAT BASIN INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES...
STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CASCADES.  GIVEN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY.  LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC COAST COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.