[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260632
SWODY2
SPC AC 260631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
CVS 15 NNW ROW 10 W 4CR 20 ENE SAF 35 E ALS 30 NNE TAD 50 SSE LHX 35
NNE TCC 40 S CVS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
UNI 30 W LUK 40 E SLO 15 SSW DEC 20 NE BMI 20 SSE SBN 10 SSE ARB 25
ESE MFD 15 NE UNI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 30 ESE CAE
20 E LGC 10 SE 0A8 HEZ 25 WNW ESF 45 NW LFT 35 SE LCH ...CONT... 65
SSW GBN 45 SE PHX 50 N SAD 25 NW ONM 15 NW 4SL 25 SE GUC 30 S DEN 40
ESE LIC 30 NW GCK 20 W P28 35 NNW BVO 40 SW EMP 20 SW TOP 35 NW SZL
35 ESE IRK 15 SE MLI 10 S MSN 55 NE EAU 45 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 WNW
EFK 20 E LEB 25 WNW BOS 20 NE BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SRQ 15 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW 4OM 50 WSW PDT
60 SSE BNO 35 SSE OWY 40 N DPG U24 MLF 30 ESE TPH 40 ESE FAT 45 SSW
MER 10 WSW SFO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN
LOWER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
NOW OVER SRN CANADA AS IT AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE ERN OH VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD IMPULSE
AND EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME ERN OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
AND TX EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT OR TROUGH MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SECONDARY UPSTREAM IMPULSE INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY. SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE NWRN U.S. COAST BY LATE DAY FRIDAY.

...OH VALLEY AND SRN LOWER MI...

MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONTAL
SURGE EARLY FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S EXPECTED. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING
AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20 C ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI. FORCING FOR
ASCENT GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MOISTENING MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ABOVE MIXED AND
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ALSO
RESULT IN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...NM THROUGH SERN CO...

SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE SWD INTO TX THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM.
ANY EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND
SERN CO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF CNTRL AND ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ABOVE ESELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS
THROUGH MID EVENING.


...NWRN U.S...

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NWRN U.S. COAST WITH THE ETA BEING FASTER AND
FARTHER N. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN OREGON AND CA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.