[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251725
SWODY2
SPC AC 251724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SSE LRD
...CONT... 45 SSW DMN GUP CEZ GJT 15 NNE CAG RWL RIW COD MLS 60 NE
4BQ Y22 ABR AXN 65 SW IWD 40 E CMX ...CONT... 20 SW BUF FKL CMH IND
SPI FLV 30 S EAR MCK GLD 40 E LAA LBL END MLC 65 N LIT 10 SE POF HOP
BNA MSL 15 SSE GWO 10 S MLU LUL 25 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EUG 45 E SLE 65 N 4LW
75 NW WMC EKO ELY TPH 25 W BIH 25 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 25 ESE EKA 30
NE 4BK EUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PIE 25 N MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...
CENTER OF BROAD UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
GREAT LAKES REGION.  DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FROM AREAS OFF
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
COOLING/DRYING IN LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZING TRENDS OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

WARMEST AIR MASS BY THURSDAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...BUT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION
...AND MUCH OF THE WEST...REMAINS RATHER DRY.  CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY APPROACH NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NEVADA
THROUGH THE SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...FLORIDA...
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
THURSDAY. WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
WHERE/WHEN CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZES.  MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PROPAGATION AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.


...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH/EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  IN ITS WAKE...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW. 
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG AN EAST-
WEST AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN COLD
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME  MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING.  ANY HAIL LIKELY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT DRY...FAIRLY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.