[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250618
SWODY2
SPC AC 250617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SSE LRD
...CONT... 35 S DMN 55 W ONM 45 W 4SL DRO 30 SW GUC 60 ESE ASE PUB
15 NE RTN 20 N AMA 30 ESE CSM 15 E MLC 35 SE HRO 10 SW MVN 10 SSE
DEC 30 NW UIN 20 WNW LWD 20 NW OFK 25 SSW HON 40 NE ATY 20 WNW AUW
25 SSE ESC 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 25 NW MGW 35 SE HTS 45
NNE CSV 40 NNE TUP SHV 35 WSW POE 10 W LFT 25 ESE MSY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 SE MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE ERN STATES WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND
FINALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT NOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO TX BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. NRN PART OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
THE SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE CNTRL
U.S. UPPER TROUGH.

...NM THROUGH TX...

A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN OK OR NRN TX...SWWD THROUGH W TX
AND INTO ERN NM EARLY THURSDAY. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AS FAR W AS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SW TX AND SERN NM.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WILL EXIST FARTHER EAST S OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN TX. AN MCS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY
STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF W TX EWD THROUGH NRN OR CNTRL TX.
S OF THE MCS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WITH MOSTLY
MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST IF AN
MCV EVOLVES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHTS STORMS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX
AND NM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK IN
THESE AREAS ALSO DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE AND THIS SUGGESTS
STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...MOSTLY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON
HEATING COMMENCES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE
TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.