[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
SJT 20 W MAF 20 ESE 4CR 15 ENE SAF 45 E GUC 10 WSW DEN 45 NNE TCC 40
SE AMA CSM 25 E OKC 20 ENE PRX TXK POE 20 ESE CLL 25 WNW SJT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 45
SE FMY 45 SW AGR 15 N AGR 15 SSE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NNE CMX MQT LNR
OTM MKC 15 NNE CNU 55 N HOT 25 ESE MLU 25 SSE GPT ...CONT... 35 SW
GLS AUS HDO 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG TCS ABQ FMN CNY 25 NNW
CDC 55 NW TPH 60 SSE TVL RBL MHS 80 WNW WMC ENV 30 SSE BPI 50 NNE
LAR CDR 10 SE RAP 45 SSW REJ BIL 55 NNW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 25 NNE MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN
FL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES....

AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES WITH SERIES OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
...FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  EASTERNMOST OF THESE FEATURES...A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...IS PROGGED BY
MODELS T0 REDEVELOP OFFSHORE...EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EASTWARD ACCELERATION WILL AWAIT PROGRESSION
OF ANOTHER IMPULSE AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST CENTRAL
CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

ANOTHER WEAKER BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST AROUND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU UPPER RIDGE INTO BASE OF
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.  IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME APPEAR
LIKELY TO AGAIN PROVIDE FORCING FOR MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHRINK AS COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM BEGIN TO STABILIZE
ENVIRONMENT.
...GULF STATES/FLORIDA...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED INTO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTH OF EASTERN GULF COASTAL
AREAS...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  CAPPING BENEATH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND LATEST
GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR/NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  THIS FEATURE/FRONTAL ZONE AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  

VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND SURFACE HEATING
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FOR HAIL...BUT MID/UPPER WIND
FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL IN EXCESS OF SEVERE
LIMITS.  OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS APPEAR LIKELY
BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE ONGOING AT THE OUTSET OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS. SYSTEM LIKELY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND
EXTENT OF STABILIZING INFLUENCE ON PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS
UNCERTAIN.  IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG... SHEAR PROFILES
BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

..KERR.. 05/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.