[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240618
SWODY2
SPC AC 240617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
BGS 55 SSW CVS 70 ENE 4CR 20 SSE LVS 20 WNW RTN 25 N TAD 25 SE LHX
15 SSE LBL 30 SSW END 20 N MLC 20 ENE PRX TYR 45 ESE ACT 45 ESE BWD
40 NNW BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 25 WSW SDY
30 ESE DIK 35 WSW JMS 45 ENE JMS 65 W RRT ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 35
SW MBL 25 NNE PIA 30 SE SZL 55 N HOT 25 ESE MLU 25 SSE GPT
...CONT... 35 SW GLS 15 S AUS 35 W JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 W MRF
15 NW ALM 40 SSE DRO 20 SW ASE DEN 35 SSW GLD 55 S EAR 15 NNW SUX 15
SSE BKX 20 NNE HON 35 NW PHP 30 NNW GCC 20 SE BIL 45 SE GTF 30 NNW
CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 20 NNW
MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHILE AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN SURGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE
LOW IN W TX NEWD THROUGH OK OR N TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD DURING THE DAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY.


...SRN PLAINS...

FORECAST IS COMPLICATED THIS PERIOD BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF POTENTIAL ONGOING MCSS AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION.
THE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY
CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN KS OR NRN OK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HEATING S OF THE MCS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO NRN TX. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE W TX
LEE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH W
TX...NERN NM...AND SERN CO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED. EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE EARLY MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST THROUGH PARTS OF OK OR NRN
TX AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS.
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND
POSSIBLY SE CO WITHIN THE ELY UPSLOPE REGIME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FOR EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE
INITIAL THREAT...BUT ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT
CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.


...CNTRL/NRN MN THROUGH NWRN WI...

STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
PARTS OF MN AND WI DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INITIALLY IN THE
POST FRONTAL REGION MAY OVERTAKE THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.