[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
VTN MHE 10 SSE SUX LNK BIE 20 W TOP 15 E CNU GWO 10 N LUL GPT 10 NNE
HUM 10 WNW ESF TXK MLC OKC CDS 10 SE AMA 10 S EHA LIC 30 E CYS 35 SW
CDR 25 NNW VTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO IWD 10 S CID
LWD SZL JBR 10 SSW CBM 10 NW MGM 50 S AGS FLO SOP PSK 35 WNW SHD CHO
40 WSW ORF 30 E ECG ...CONT... 20 S BPT LFK 45 SSE DAL SEP 40 ESE
JCT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSE DUG GNT 4BL PUC EVW COD 35 N SHR 10
W Y22 50 WSW P24 SDY 25 NNW LWT 30 E 3TH 25 N 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SLOW TO CHANGE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND IN BELT FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WITH SERIES OF
AMPLIFIED PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...INCLUDING
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND ANOTHER
UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN.

MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING PERIPHERY OF EASTERN
U.S. CIRCULATION WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ARE PROGGED TO BOTH BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW
EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CLOSED/LOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER FEATURES...ONE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
...WHILE ANOTHER ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF BOTH BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
 HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
LIKELY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES IN WEAKER STREAM
OF FLOW ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN ROCKIES
HIGH.  ACCESS TO BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITH THIS STREAM...ON
EDGE OF STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL FOCUS RELEASE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.

...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WEAKENING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS AT 12Z TUESDAY. 
AS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD...FORCING
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTERN STATES TROUGH LIKELY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.  THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK...MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO
2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

...WEST CENTRAL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG INSOLATION AND DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.  SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF INITIATION...BUT BOTH LATEST
GFS/NAM SUGGEST AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAKENING CAP
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


THOUGH LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...EAST/
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.  DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ONE OR MORE LARGER
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVENTUALLY EVOLVES.  ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA/ KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA..
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/ CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUESDAY.  BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO EXIST WHERE CONVERGENCE
BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR SEA BREEZE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  CAPE COULD BECOME FAIRLY LARGE /UP TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG/ ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO IN MODERATELY SHEARED CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME.

..KERR.. 05/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.