[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230638
SWODY2
SPC AC 230637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
BUB 40 ESE GRI 20 W TOP 15 E CNU 35 NNW FYV 30 SW MKO 25 NNW FSI 60
WSW GAG 45 N CAO 25 NNW COS 30 E CYS 20 WNW MHN 35 E BUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LCH 40 WNW TYR
60 NNW ABI 25 WSW SJT 40 S MAF 30 S HOB 25 SSW TCC 40 W TAD 20 E CAG
55 NNW RWL 45 SW GCC 25 SSE RAP 50 SW ABR 65 SSW FAR 25 NNW GFK 25
SE MOT GGW 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 55 N CMX 35 WNW EAU 25 SW MCW LWD 45
WNW TBN 45 N LIT 25 NNW JAN 40 WNW CEW 35 SW VLD 10 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SOP 25 WNW GSO
15 N BKW 20 WNW EKN 20 SW MRB 35 ESE CHO 35 W ECG 30 NW EWN 25 SSW
GSB 10 NE SOP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF OK...

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS OVER TOP OF
SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SRN PLAINS EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN OK OR SRN KS FROM A LEE LOW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS SWWD INTO SE WY EARLY TUESDAY AND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SWWD INTO CNTRL CO BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH FL AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE SERN
STATES.


...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH OK...

AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
PERSIST IN VICINITY OF AND N OF THE FRONT FROM NRN OK THROUGH KS.
PERSISTENT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP
MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN KS
AND NEB WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM NEB THROUGH PARTS OF KS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH KS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT
INTO KS AND OK MAKES EVOLUTION OF EARLY ACTIVITY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST FARTHER W OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES WITHIN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME BY LATE AFTERNOON. SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY
ABOVE 3 KM WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT.
STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY
THROUGH ERN CO WRN KS AND WRN NEB. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS AND SPREAD SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO
OK IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO EXPECTED STRONGER CAP.

...FL...

POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...GENERALLY AOB 30 KT DUE TO THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...UPPER MS VALLEY...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING IN VICINITY OF
COLD FRONT AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.