[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
GPT 30 NE BTR 55 ENE LFK 50 NW MWL 30 NNE TCC 25 WNW RTN 45 ENE ALS
15 E LAR 30 ESE DGW 55 WNW CDR 30 NNE CDR 60 E CDR 15 W MHN 25 ENE
IML 50 SSE GLD 20 SE GCK 10 WNW END 40 NW PGO 20 SSW CBM 25 ENE LGC
45 W AGS 15 WSW FLO 25 WSW GSB 15 NW RWI 25 NE LYH CHO 50 SW DCA 10
SSE WAL ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 25 NNW GNV 30 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BVE 50 N BPT 20
SE SEP 45 ESE LBB 20 SE LBB 40 SW LBB 25 NW MAF 25 SSW INK 15 NE GDP
45 SW 4CR 25 NNE DRO 60 SW CAG 20 WSW RKS 30 S BPI 30 N BPI 40 W WRL
25 E 4BQ 25 SE Y22 40 N PIR 45 SSE 9V9 20 S EAR 25 ESE RSL 25 WNW
BVO 50 SE HRO 30 SW MSL 30 NNW AHN 20 SW CLT 35 E HKY 45 SSW BLF 30
NNW 5I3 25 WNW UNI 20 NNW ZZV 20 NNW PIT 20 SW PSB 20 NE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTHEAST US AND  ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAINS...

...HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUING INTO ERN CO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE WITH 50F SFC
DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO A RIDGE ALOFT...TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD
INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
INSTABILITY QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN ERN CO MONDAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES
LIKELY ABOVE 1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN CO SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF SFC
DEWPOINTS CAN REACH THE MID 50S F AND A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX DRIFTS
OVER THE RIDGE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS WRN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE OR INTO WRN OK
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SERN US/ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS AL AND GA MONDAY. INCREASING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SWD REACHING THE COASTAL SECTIONS BY
EVENING.

SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND THE
UPPER-LOW ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORECAST WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A LINE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND SRN SC.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS AR AND MS DURING THE DAY.
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD IN AR BUT WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR INITIATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE DESPITE THE WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A
SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE CELLS SPREAD SEWD INTO LA
AND SRN MS DURING THE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.