[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220628
SWODY2
SPC AC 220627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
GPT 50 ENE LFK 35 SW CDS 35 SSW CAO 25 S PUB 35 ESE DEN 25 SE BFF 20
WNW VTN 50 E ANW 30 SE BUB 20 N GCK END 35 SSE MKO 50 N GLH 25 NW
TCL 40 ESE ATL 20 NE CAE 15 NW GSB 35 WSW ORF 35 NE ORF ...CONT...
30 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 25 SE SEP
35 ENE BGS 10 SE INK 40 NNW GDP 45 SW 4CR 30 E ABQ 30 SSW ALS 15 N
4FC 30 SE RKS 40 NNE BPI 35 NNW COD 45 W 4BQ 45 S P24 45 S JMS 30 NE
MHE 20 ENE OLU 15 WNW SLN 30 WNW BVO 55 SSE HRO 35 SW MSL 35 E RMG
35 E SPA 30 E HKY 45 N HKY 30 SSW 5I3 30 W UNI 20 S CAK 20 SSW PSB
20 NE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN U.S. WWD THROUGH
PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES WHILE A TROUGH
PREVAILS IN THE EAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WILL TURN SE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
SE U.S. MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SWWD THROUGH OK AND NERN NM EARLY
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH VA/ERN NC AND OFFSHORE BY
EVENING...WITH TRAILING FRONT STRETCHING SWWD THROUGH SRN PART OF
THE SERN STATES THEN NWWD INTO OK.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES...

WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS SE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TRANSPORT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS EWD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EXPECTED. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE HEATING
COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET
CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. 40+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH 30-40 KT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SOME STORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


...OK THROUGH NRN TX...

SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OK OR NRN TX AND EXTEND WWD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF FRONT UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE MAKES CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THIS AREA MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH HEATING THE CAP MAY WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OR ALONG
ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25
TO 30 KT WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY ELY OR SELY FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID LEVELS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR BOTH MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS.


...NERN NM THROUGH ERN CO AND WRN KS AND NEB...

LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD. THIS SHOULD ESTABLISH SELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
CO...WRN KS AND WRN NEB UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BY AFTERNOON
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST FOR 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM CO NEWD THROUGH NEB WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN MCS MAY BE POSSIBLE
INTO PARTS OF NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.