[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211728
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
ERI PKB 20 SSE JKL 50 SE BNA 20 N TUP 20 SW PBF 30 NW PRX 15 E LTS
35 W CSM 10 E GAG 25 E P28 40 SW EMP 35 SW SZL 25 SE SPI 25 WNW SBN
MKG 40 ENE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 30 NNE ABY
55 ESE MEI 35 SSW MLU 15 W MWL 10 N LBB 35 WSW AMA 55 SSE EHA 20 NNW
HUT MKC 40 WSW PIA 10 ESE RFD 25 SW OSH INL ...CONT... 35 NW ROC 45
SE BUF 25 WSW CXY 30 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ALM 15 S ALM 30
NNW ALM 35 ESE ASE 25 SSE 4FC 30 ESE DEN 25 SSW LIC 35 E RTN 30 ENE
ROW 35 NW CNM 35 SE ALM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW FMY PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT
REACHING SCNTRL MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK ON SUNDAY. ELEVATED STORMS
LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MO. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS INITIATE.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF INITIATION AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAP AND WEAK ASCENT. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS.
ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR
WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LARGEST HAIL MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN KS AND
CNTRL OK WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. THE STORMS SHOULD
SPREAD SSEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE EVENING HOURS AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CANADA WILL OPEN AND DRIFT SEWD TOWARD THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO IL AND IND DURING THE DAY. STORMS
COULD BE ONGOING ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE
RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. THE MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD AID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR POCKETS OF LOCALLY MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. AS THE
FRONT MOVES EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING INSTABILITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE.

...CO/NM...
AS SFC TEMPS WARM SUNDAY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
MTNS OF CO AND NM AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ASCENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. THE BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK HEATING AS THE STORMS MATURE AND
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.