[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
ERI 20 WSW HLG 15 SSW CRW 20 W HSS 20 W RMG 35 W CBM 15 WSW TXK 40
SW ADM 40 WNW OKC 20 WSW ICT 30 ESE SZL 15 SE SPI BEH 30 ESE MBL 10
NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ROC PSB 15 NNW
RIC 50 ESE EWN ...CONT... 30 E CHS 35 NNW ABY 50 N MOB 30 NNE POE 60
NNE ABI 45 SSW GAG 25 ENE DDC 40 NE MKC 35 NW PIA 35 W MKE 40 NW GRB
70 SSE DLH 30 E BJI 10 N RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE 4SL 25 WSW 4FC
20 SSW FCL 40 NNW LIC 40 ESE RTN 10 N CNM 45 SSE ALM 15 ESE TCS 35
NNE 4SL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 15 ESE
PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE SW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TURN SEWD AFTER CRESTING THE
UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN
INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY
SUNDAY THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER S CNTRL
CANADA SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THEN SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND KS. BY LATE SUNDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM AN
OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
PLAINS.


...CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST
UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM OK...SRN KS THROUGH SRN MO AND
INTO AR. ONE OR MORE MCSS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM KS INTO PARTS OF MO...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY OR
NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIATION BECOMES LESS LIKELY WITH WWD EXTENT INTO WRN OK AND THE
TX PANHANDLE DUE TO STRONGER CAP. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM OK AND KS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET CONTINUES SEWD. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE SE INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED SEVERE
THREAT.


...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREAS...

LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DUE TO MORE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING
STORMS. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000
J/KG. OTHERWISE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. THREAT FOR
BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SERVE AS AN
OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS FROM THE 40S IN ERN CO TO THE LOWER 50S OVER ERN NM ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG CAP
E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATED SLOW SSEWD STORM MOTION AND
PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND
WILL NOT LIKELY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.