[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201729
SWODY2
SPC AC 201727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
CMX 30 ESE AUW 15 E DBQ 30 WNW UIN 30 SW SZL 45 NNW BVO 20 E P28 15
NE DDC 55 SW HLC 35 SSE MCK 40 ENE BUB 25 W FSD 25 SSW FAR 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF
45 SW RIC 35 S SHD MGW 15 E YNG 25 NNE ERI ...CONT... 10 ENE MSS 35
SSE SLK 20 NE POU 20 ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ANJ 35 N BEH
20 WSW SLO 15 SE UNO 25 NW PGO 25 ESE FSI 30 ESE AMA 50 NNW TCC 45
SW PUB 15 SSW DEN 40 SSW ANW 20 ENE 9V9 40 NNW ABR 45 W JMS 25 SSW
SDY 25 S OLF 55 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 35 SW DHN
55 NW AYS 30 WSW CHS 30 SSW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS...

....UPPER MIDWEST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AND CLOSE
OFF ACROSS SRN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND IA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD IN THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD
INTO MN...OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND LIKELY WEAKENING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS CLEARING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST IN
WRN MN AND SE SD. STORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE UPPER-LOW ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN WITH STORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED ACROSS ERN SD WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
F AND RESULTANT SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL
CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN CNTRL AND NRN MN WHERE THE SHEAR
AND LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET. 

...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH 65 TO 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD DUE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SWD INTO KS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE IN ECNTRL
NEB AND NW IA WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING SEWD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NE KS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MODERATE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTHEAST OF THE
SFC LOW WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SWD THROUGH KS AND NW MO. PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...FL...
AN ERN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
GRADUALLY SPREADING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM COVERAGE. THE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF
SRN FL.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.