[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200600
SWODY2
SPC AC 200559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E
ELO 35 SSW IWD 10 NNW VOK 35 S MLI 20 E JEF 35 NW SGF 30 N PNC 10
ENE DDC 35 S MCK 15 SSW BUB 15 SSE MHE 55 NE ABR 75 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ART 20 WNW ALB
20 WSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE ORF 25 SSW SHD 30 WNW HLG 40 NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 35 SW DHN
55 NW AYS 30 W CHS 35 SW ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 40 NNW BEH
55 SSW BLV 20 SSW FSM 15 S FSI 35 NNW TCC 45 NNE ALS 25 WSW DEN 35
SSW ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 SSW JMS DIK 35 SSE OLF 50 NNW GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT
LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE
NWRN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB AND NE CO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. TRAILING END OF
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH KS AND INTO NRN OK EARLY SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES...

AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THESE
STORMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL
ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM
PARTS OF KS THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. FARTHER NWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...LESS INSTABILITY IS LIKELY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE MCS AS WELL AS
MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN IN WAKE OF MCS AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT FROM THE
ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO ERN NEB AND IA AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CAP WEAKENS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE...STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SWD INTO KS. PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET
ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS
EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.


...FL...

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG. STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERN U.S. UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF FL...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.