[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
HUM 15 SW ESF 25 SW ELD 35 NNE ELD 15 WNW UOX 20 SW HSV 15 NE LGC 50
NE MGR VLD 40 SE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
INL 25 ENE ATY 20 WSW HON 15 WNW PIR 55 NNE SHR 55 ENE BIL 90 WNW
MLS 20 S OLF 15 SE MOT 80 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GLS 15 S SEP 70
SSE CDS 25 W EHA 10 SSW DEN 30 SE RKS 20 S PIH 65 NNE LMT 10 NNW 4BK
...CONT... 85 E ELO 25 ENE MSP 25 ESE SPW 15 NW FNB 45 S OJC 20 NE
SGF 25 WSW MDH 30 S BMG 30 NE LUK 30 WSW MGW 30 NE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN US...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...SERN US...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DAMPEN AND SHIFT SEWD
INTO THE SERN US FRIDAY. A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM AR
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN AL INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH SFC HEATING WILL AID INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
DAY. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN MS...AL AND GA. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SWD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MS AND AL SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES GREATER
THAN 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE VEERED
AND A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...NRN PLAINS...  
AN UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS FRIDAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM SERN MT ACROSS ND. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS ND AND DEVELOP
SWD INTO SD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN MT AND WRN ND. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE...A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW IN NW
SD OR CNTRL ND WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BACKED. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AS WELL. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH
A POSSIBILITY FOR WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.