[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190612
SWODY2
SPC AC 190611

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
7R4 25 ESE POE 35 NNW SHV 15 N PBF 25 NE UOX 25 S HSV 25 SSE ANB 45
WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT 30 SE SEP
35 NE AMA 15 ESE LAA 45 W RTN 15 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 55 SE RKS 40 W
VEL 30 SW DPG ENV 10 E PIH 20 SSE MQM 40 S 27U 50 N BOI 30 ENE BKE
20 SSW EPH 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 85 E ELO 25 ENE MSP 25 ESE SPW 25
NNW FNB 55 S OJC 30 N UNO 35 E MVN 25 S LAF 25 NNW CMH 25 WSW MGW 25
ESE EKN 10 ENE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FRONTAL
POSITION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...SINCE MAIN CONVECTIVE /
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE E OF THIS AREA WHERE MODELS ARE MORE
SIMILAR...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTS FOR THIS
PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO THE DAY 3 FORECAST ISSUED 24 HOURS EARLIER.

OVERALL...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER
THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS GA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  FURTHER W...NOSE OF SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
NEWD INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE FLATTENED WITH TIME...AS SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES IN BROAD BELT
OF FAST / WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW.  

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LOW ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEY REGION.  WITH
TIME...THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS / TN VALLEY
/ MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST STATES / TX
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...TROUGH / FRONT IN THE WEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN / SHIFT
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

...SERN VA / CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
REGION / SERN U.S. AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  IN ADDITION TO LIMITED HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.  FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...MORE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF SWD-MOVING FRONT.  THOUGH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE NLY...FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT TO RESULT IN
ORGANIZED / SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AND
SHIFT SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST WITH TIME...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT
SEVERE THREAT. 

FURTHER WNWWD INTO TX / THE RED RIVER VALLEY...STRONGER CAPPING
INVOF BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY ISOLATED
STORMS AT BEST.  HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
HAIL / WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN ND / SD / WRN HALF OF NEB...
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 
HOWEVER...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION.  FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...LIMITED NUMBER OF STORMS EXPECTED ATTM AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ONLY LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.